NHL Futures


The Donchess Inference Index computer simulated results for the NHL season. The NHL schedule was simulated 1,000 times based on real data based on the teams’ rankings and how they have done so far in the NHL season. One will find expected win total for all the NHL teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the Stanley Cup. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

The simulation is done using the playoff format that was first implemented in the 2014 season. Under this format, the top three teams in each division make the playoffs, and then the next two best teams within the conference also make it in.

To get information on daily NHL game predictions, reference: NHL Game Predictons

Last simulation was done on 4/4/2018.

NHL Futures

NHL Teams Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

Atlantic Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Boston
49
18
12
50.8
18.9
12.3
113.8
60.2%
Tampa Bay
53
23
4
54.3
23.6
4.2
112.7
39.8%
Toronto
48
24
8
49.2
25.6
7.2
105.5
0%
Florida
41
30
8
42.5
31.1
8.4
93.4
0%
Detroit
30
38
12
31
38.7
12.3
74.3
0%
Montreal
28
39
13
28.9
39.8
13.3
71
0%
Ottawa
27
41
11
28.2
42.4
11.4
67.8
0%
Buffalo
25
42
12
26.2
43.4
12.4
64.8
0%
Central Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Washington
48
25
7
49
25.8
7.3
105.2
100%
Pittsburgh
45
29
6
46.2
29.6
6.2
98.6
0%
Columbus
45
29
6
45.9
29.8
6.3
98.2
0%
New Jersey
43
28
9
43.9
28.8
9.3
97.1
0%
Philadelphia
40
26
14
41.1
26.7
14.2
96.5
0%
Carolina
35
34
11
35.9
34.8
11.3
83
0%
NY Rangers
34
37
9
34.9
37.8
9.3
79.1
0%
NY Islanders
33
37
10
34
37.8
10.3
78.2
0%
Metropolitan Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Nashville
51
18
11
52.1
18.7
11.2
115.4
92.5%
Winnipeg
50
20
10
51.2
20.6
10.2
112.6
7.5%
Minnesota
44
25
10
45.6
26.1
10.4
101.5
0%
St Louis
43
30
6
44.7
30.9
6.3
95.8
0%
Colorado
42
29
9
42.9
29.8
9.3
95.1
0%
Dallas
41
31
8
42
31.8
8.2
92.2
0%
Chicago
32
37
10
33.2
38.3
10.5
76.8
0%
Pacific Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Vegas
51
22
7
52.2
22.6
7.2
111.5
100%
San Jose
44
26
10
45
26.7
10.2
100.3
0%
Anaheim
41
25
13
42.6
26.1
13.3
98.5
0%
Los Angeles
44
28
8
45
28.8
8.3
98.2
0%
Calgary
36
34
10
36.8
34.9
10.3
84
0%
Edmonton
34
40
6
35
40.8
6.2
76.2
0%
Vancouver
30
40
10
30.9
40.8
10.3
72.1
0%
Arizona
29
40
11
29.9
40.8
11.3
71.2
0%

The current playoff tiebreaker rules have been in place for quite a while now and our simulation accounts for all of this. The statistic to really watch is the “ROW”, which is the amount of wins the team has earned without including shootout wins. ROW is the tiebreaker for teams with equal amount of points and is likely to be a determining factor in the Wild Card races.

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