NHL Playoff Simulation


The 2015 NHL regular season has ended and the playoffs get started on April 15th. We have our final regular season computer ratings posted here. Note that our final ratings do not just take into account record, but a variety of factors that determine which team really is the “best”. Further, we will be providing our predictions on every individual game throughout the playoffs here.

NHL Playoff Simulation

We ran 2,500 simulations to find out how far each of the teams would go in the playoffs. The results of these simulations can be found below. Our simulations use the game predictions described above to determine the outcome of every game in all of the rounds of the playoffs.

Simulated Odds to Win the 2015 Stanley Cup

The results of our simulation have the New York Rangers as the clear cut favorites at around 5:1 odds to win the Stanley Cup. According to the simulation, no other team has even a 10% chance of winning the whole thing. This should make for a lot of close series and a very good playoff.

Team Prob of Making Conf Semis Prob of Making Conf Champ Prob of Winning the Conference Prob of Winning Stanley Cup
NY Rangers
71.56%
44.28%
28%
17.36%
Tampa Bay
64.16%
30.92%
16.04%
9.6%
Montreal
53.64%
31.56%
17.08%
9.48%
St Louis
52.88%
31.8%
17.32%
8.56%
Anaheim
52.76%
29.24%
16.04%
7.72%
Chicago
53.36%
26.88%
13.4%
6.92%
Minnesota
47.12%
24.52%
12.44%
6.04%
Winnipeg
47.24%
23.64%
10.68%
4.96%
Vancouver
54.52%
23.36%
11.12%
4.96%
Washington
53.2%
26.32%
11%
4.88%
Ottawa
46.36%
23.32%
10.04%
4.6%
Calgary
45.48%
20.32%
9.6%
4.08%
Nashville
46.64%
20.24%
9.4%
3.56%
NY Islanders
46.8%
18.8%
7.68%
3.4%
Detroit
35.84%
13.96%
6.08%
2.32%
Pittsburgh
28.44%
10.84%
4.08%
1.56%