NHL Futures


The Donchess Inference Index computer simulated results for the NHL season. The NHL schedule was simulated 1,000 times based on real data based on the teams’ rankings and how they have done so far in the NHL season. One will find expected win total for all the NHL teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the Stanley Cup. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

The simulation is done using the playoff format that was first implemented in the 2014 season. Under this format, the top three teams in each division make the playoffs, and then the next two best teams within the conference also make it in.

To get information on daily NHL game predictions, reference: NHL Game Predictons

Last simulation was done on 10/19/2017.

NHL Futures

NHL Teams Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

Atlantic Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Boston
2
3
0
40.8
31.7
9.5
91.1
7.6%
Buffalo
1
4
2
34.5
35.2
12.3
81.2
0.5%
Detroit
4
2
0
36.7
34.7
10.6
83.9
2%
Florida
2
3
0
38.5
33.3
10.2
87.2
2.6%
Montreal
1
4
1
40.1
31.9
10
90.2
6.5%
Ottawa
3
1
2
39.8
30.4
11.9
91.4
9.6%
Tampa Bay
5
1
1
43.9
28.2
9.9
97.7
24.7%
Toronto
5
1
0
47
26.6
8.4
102.3
46.5%
Central Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Carolina
2
1
1
42
29.4
10.6
94.6
9.1%
Columbus
5
1
0
46.1
27.4
8.5
100.7
26.2%
NY Islanders
2
3
1
39.7
31.7
10.6
90
3.3%
NY Rangers
1
5
1
39.6
32.3
10.1
89.3
2.6%
New Jersey
5
1
0
39.5
32.2
10.3
89.2
3.2%
Philadelphia
4
2
0
41.9
30.6
9.6
93.3
6.5%
Pittsburgh
4
2
1
46
26.8
9.1
101.2
27.4%
Washington
3
3
1
45.2
27.5
9.3
99.7
21.7%
Metropolitan Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Chicago
4
1
1
45.6
27
9.4
100.6
36.3%
Colorado
4
3
0
35.1
35.9
11
81.2
0.6%
Dallas
3
3
0
41.5
31.1
9.4
92.3
8.8%
Minnesota
1
1
2
41.9
29
11.1
94.8
13.3%
Nashville
3
2
1
43.2
28.9
9.9
96.3
18.6%
St Louis
4
2
0
42.8
30
9.2
94.8
14.3%
Winnipeg
3
3
0
41.5
31
9.5
92.5
8.1%
Pacific Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Anaheim
2
3
1
41
30.8
10.2
92.2
10.7%
Arizona
0
5
1
31.6
38.1
12.3
75.5
0.1%
Calgary
4
2
0
42.1
30.4
9.5
93.6
14.9%
Edmonton
1
4
0
42.4
30.7
8.9
93.7
13.3%
Los Angeles
4
0
1
44.8
27.2
10
99.6
38.4%
San Jose
2
3
0
42.6
30.4
9.1
94.2
14.2%
Vancouver
2
2
1
34.3
35.5
12.2
80.8
1.1%

The current playoff tiebreaker rules have been in place for quite a while now and our simulation accounts for all of this. The statistic to really watch is the “ROW”, which is the amount of wins the team has earned without including shootout wins. ROW is the tiebreaker for teams with equal amount of points and is likely to be a determining factor in the Wild Card races.

NHL Teams Probability to Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Stanley Cup

Atlantic Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Boston
46.1%
+117
4.3%
+2226
1.9%
+5163
Buffalo
9%
+1011
0.7%
+14186
0.2%
+49900
Detroit
16.5%
+506
0.2%
+49900
0.2%
+49900
Florida
29.6%
+238
0.5%
+19900
0.2%
+49900
Montreal
40.5%
+147
4.6%
+2074
1.9%
+5163
Ottawa
46.1%
+117
2.8%
+3471
1.3%
+7592
Tampa Bay
74.8%
-297
8.9%
+1024
4.7%
+2028
Toronto
88.8%
-793
17.2%
+481
9.3%
+975
Central Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Carolina
55.8%
-126
5.9%
+1595
2.6%
+3746
Columbus
82.3%
-465
12.3%
+713
6.8%
+1371
NY Islanders
35.3%
+183
2.3%
+4248
0.7%
+14186
NY Rangers
31.5%
+217
3.4%
+2841
1.7%
+5782
New Jersey
32.3%
+210
1.1%
+8991
0.5%
+19900
Philadelphia
50.2%
-101
4.5%
+2122
2.4%
+4067
Pittsburgh
84.7%
-554
15.4%
+549
10.1%
+890
Washington
76.5%
-326
15.9%
+529
9.2%
+987
Metropolitan Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Chicago
85.7%
-599
16.7%
+499
8.9%
+1024
Colorado
11.3%
+785
0.2%
+49900
0.1%
+99900
Dallas
56.7%
-131
4.3%
+2226
1.5%
+6567
Minnesota
65.8%
-192
8.6%
+1063
3.7%
+2603
Nashville
72.6%
-265
12.1%
+726
5.7%
+1654
St Louis
66.3%
-197
6.9%
+1349
3.1%
+3126
Winnipeg
56.4%
-129
5.1%
+1861
1.3%
+7592
Pacific Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Anaheim
56.4%
-129
6.6%
+1415
2.7%
+3604
Arizona
3%
+3233
0.1%
+99900
0%
No Odds
Calgary
61.3%
-158
7.8%
+1182
3.4%
+2841
Edmonton
64.3%
-180
11.3%
+785
5.5%
+1718
Los Angeles
82.8%
-481
11.2%
+793
5.5%
+1718
San Jose
63.9%
-177
7.8%
+1182
4.4%
+2173
Vancouver
11.1%
+801
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds

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