NHL Futures


The Donchess Inference Index computer simulated results for the NHL season. The NHL schedule was simulated 1,000 times based on real data based on the teams’ rankings and how they have done so far in the NHL season. One will find expected win total for all the NHL teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the Stanley Cup. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

The simulation is done using the playoff format that was first implemented in the 2014 season. Under this format, the top three teams in each division make the playoffs, and then the next two best teams within the conference also make it in.

To get information on daily NHL game predictions, reference: NHL Game Predictons

Last simulation was done on 1/3/2018.

NHL Futures

NHL Teams Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

Atlantic Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Tampa Bay
29
8
2
56.7
19.5
5.8
119.2
95.3%
Boston
22
10
6
46.4
24.7
10.9
103.6
3.8%
Toronto
23
16
2
45.3
30
6.6
97.3
0.9%
Florida
17
17
5
37.1
34.2
10.7
85
0%
Montreal
16
20
4
35.5
36.9
9.6
80.6
0%
Detroit
15
16
7
33.6
35
13.4
80.5
0%
Ottawa
12
17
8
30.9
36.7
14.5
76.2
0%
Buffalo
10
20
9
25.8
40.4
15.8
67.3
0%
Central Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Washington
25
13
3
47.2
27.1
7.7
102.1
43.3%
Columbus
23
15
3
45.5
28.8
7.7
98.8
21%
NY Rangers
21
13
5
42.8
28.8
10.4
96
11%
New Jersey
22
10
7
41.2
27.7
13.1
95.5
10.4%
Carolina
18
13
8
40.4
28.5
13.1
93.9
6.6%
NY Islanders
20
16
4
41.2
31.6
9.2
91.6
3.4%
Pittsburgh
20
18
3
41.9
32.4
7.7
91.5
3.9%
Philadelphia
16
15
8
36.8
31.7
13.6
87.1
0.4%
Metropolitan Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Nashville
23
11
5
47.3
25
9.6
104.3
40.5%
Winnipeg
23
11
7
44.9
25.3
11.8
101.6
26.8%
St Louis
25
15
2
47.1
28.4
6.6
100.7
21.5%
Dallas
22
16
3
44
30.3
7.7
95.6
5.7%
Minnesota
21
16
3
42.8
31
8.2
93.8
3.1%
Chicago
18
14
6
40.7
30
11.4
92.7
2.4%
Colorado
20
16
3
38.5
34.3
9.2
86.1
0%
Pacific Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Vegas
27
9
2
50.1
24.7
7.2
107.4
56.1%
Los Angeles
24
11
5
47.3
24.9
9.8
104.4
29.4%
San Jose
21
12
4
45.4
27.4
9.2
100
13.4%
Anaheim
19
14
8
38.6
30
13.4
90.5
0.6%
Calgary
19
16
4
40.2
32.3
9.5
89.9
0.4%
Edmonton
17
20
3
38.8
35.1
8.1
85.7
0.1%
Vancouver
16
19
5
33.7
37.3
11
78.5
0%

The current playoff tiebreaker rules have been in place for quite a while now and our simulation accounts for all of this. The statistic to really watch is the “ROW”, which is the amount of wins the team has earned without including shootout wins. ROW is the tiebreaker for teams with equal amount of points and is likely to be a determining factor in the Wild Card races.

NHL Teams Probability to Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Stanley Cup

Atlantic Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Tampa Bay
100%
No Odds
44.7%
+124
33.8%
+196
Boston
98.2%
-5456
12.6%
+694
5.8%
+1624
Toronto
90.5%
-953
7.5%
+1233
3.9%
+2464
Florida
15.2%
+558
0.2%
+49900
0%
No Odds
Montreal
5.2%
+1823
0.2%
+49900
0.1%
+99900
Detroit
5.9%
+1595
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Ottawa
1.5%
+6567
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Buffalo
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Central Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Washington
94.3%
-1654
10.9%
+817
6.1%
+1539
Columbus
82.1%
-459
7.9%
+1166
3.2%
+3025
NY Rangers
71.8%
-255
4.6%
+2074
2.3%
+4248
New Jersey
64.9%
-185
2.2%
+4445
0.8%
+12400
Carolina
56.7%
-131
3.8%
+2532
1.3%
+7592
NY Islanders
45.5%
+120
1.9%
+5163
0.6%
+16567
Pittsburgh
47.2%
+112
3.3%
+2930
1.7%
+5782
Philadelphia
21%
+376
0.2%
+49900
0.1%
+99900
Metropolitan Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Nashville
95.2%
-1983
17.9%
+459
8.2%
+1120
Winnipeg
88.6%
-777
11.8%
+747
4.8%
+1983
St Louis
86.7%
-652
13.7%
+630
5.7%
+1654
Dallas
64%
-178
7.4%
+1251
2.9%
+3348
Minnesota
52.6%
-111
4.3%
+2226
1.9%
+5163
Chicago
44.7%
+124
4.2%
+2281
1.8%
+5456
Colorado
12.8%
+681
0.2%
+49900
0.2%
+49900
Pacific Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Vegas
98.1%
-5163
9.3%
+975
3%
+3233
Los Angeles
95.7%
-2226
15.2%
+558
6.4%
+1463
San Jose
84.9%
-562
12.4%
+706
4.7%
+2028
Anaheim
32.2%
+211
1.3%
+7592
0.2%
+49900
Calgary
29.8%
+236
1.2%
+8233
0.3%
+33233
Edmonton
13.8%
+625
1.1%
+8991
0.2%
+49900
Vancouver
0.9%
+11011
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds

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