NHL Futures


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The Donchess Inference Index computer simulated results for the NHL season. The NHL schedule was simulated 1,000 times based on real data based on the teams’ rankings and how they have done so far in the NHL season. One will find expected win total for all the NHL teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the Stanley Cup. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

The simulation is done using the playoff format that was first implemented in the 2014 season. Under this format, the top three teams in each division make the playoffs, and then the next two best teams within the conference also make it in.

To get information on daily NHL game predictions, reference: NHL Game Predictons

Last simulation was done on 4/12/2017.

NHL Futures

NHL Teams Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

Atlantic Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Montreal
47
26
9
47
26
9
103
100%
Ottawa
44
28
10
44
28
10
98
0%
Boston
44
31
7
44
31
7
95
0%
Toronto
40
27
15
40
27
15
95
0%
Tampa Bay
42
30
10
42
30
10
94
0%
Florida
35
36
11
35
36
11
81
0%
Detroit
33
36
13
33
36
13
79
0%
Buffalo
33
37
12
33
37
12
78
0%
Central Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Washington
55
19
8
55
19
8
118
100%
Pittsburgh
50
21
11
50
21
11
111
0%
Columbus
50
24
8
50
24
8
108
0%
NY Rangers
48
28
6
48
28
6
102
0%
NY Islanders
41
29
12
41
29
12
94
0%
Philadelphia
39
33
10
39
33
10
88
0%
Carolina
36
31
15
36
31
15
87
0%
New Jersey
28
40
14
28
40
14
70
0%
Metropolitan Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Chicago
50
23
9
50
23
9
109
100%
Minnesota
49
25
8
49
25
8
106
0%
St Louis
46
29
7
46
29
7
99
0%
Nashville
41
29
12
41
29
12
94
0%
Winnipeg
40
35
7
40
35
7
87
0%
Dallas
34
37
11
34
37
11
79
0%
Colorado
22
56
4
22
56
4
48
0%
Pacific Wins Losses OT Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj OT Losses Proj Points Prob Win Division
Anaheim
46
23
13
46
23
13
105
100%
Edmonton
47
26
9
47
26
9
103
0%
San Jose
46
29
7
46
29
7
99
0%
Calgary
45
33
4
45
33
4
94
0%
Los Angeles
39
35
8
39
35
8
86
0%
Arizona
30
42
10
30
42
10
70
0%
Vancouver
30
43
9
30
43
9
69
0%

The current playoff tiebreaker rules have been in place for quite a while now and our simulation accounts for all of this. The statistic to really watch is the “ROW”, which is the amount of wins the team has earned without including shootout wins. ROW is the tiebreaker for teams with equal amount of points and is likely to be a determining factor in the Wild Card races.

NHL Teams Probability to Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Stanley Cup

Atlantic Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Montreal
100%
No Odds
9.4%
+964
4.7%
+2028
Ottawa
100%
No Odds
2.4%
+4067
0.4%
+24900
Boston
100%
No Odds
14.5%
+590
7.6%
+1216
Toronto
100%
No Odds
5%
+1900
1.7%
+5782
Tampa Bay
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Florida
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Detroit
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Buffalo
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Central Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Washington
100%
No Odds
32.7%
+206
21.4%
+367
Pittsburgh
100%
No Odds
18.3%
+446
11.5%
+770
Columbus
100%
No Odds
10.3%
+871
4.8%
+1983
NY Rangers
100%
No Odds
7.4%
+1251
3.5%
+2757
NY Islanders
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Philadelphia
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Carolina
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
New Jersey
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Metropolitan Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Chicago
100%
No Odds
16.3%
+513
9%
+1011
Minnesota
100%
No Odds
16.7%
+499
7.7%
+1199
St Louis
100%
No Odds
9.9%
+910
3.7%
+2603
Nashville
100%
No Odds
6.7%
+1393
2.5%
+3900
Winnipeg
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Dallas
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Colorado
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Pacific Prob to Make Playoffs ML to Make Playoffs Prob to Win Conf ML to Win Conf Prob to Win Cup ML to Win Cup
Anaheim
100%
No Odds
17.2%
+481
7.7%
+1199
Edmonton
100%
No Odds
14.8%
+576
5.9%
+1595
San Jose
100%
No Odds
11.6%
+762
5%
+1900
Calgary
100%
No Odds
6.8%
+1371
2.9%
+3348
Los Angeles
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Arizona
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
Vancouver
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds
0%
No Odds


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